Trevor Bolin The 1# Realtor

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The Past As It Becomes A Present...



I have been known over the past almost two decades in Real Estate to give my opinions more than the amount of years I have been a Realtor.  Some people I am sure have used them to buy or sell depepding on the position they were in, some have not.  All these years later I can recall the stories of people waiting to buy or waiting to sell based on main stream media.


Attached to this blog is an interesting graph, now I could tell you this is Fort St John's housing graph since 1950 based on sales and activity and you would google it to find out it is very close.  I could tell you this is Fort St John's construction graph, or new housing and ultimately it would be very close.  The fact of the matter, this is world oil prices since the early 1950's.  The four red dots you see above are all the really matters for todays topic.


The red dots in the graph play an important role in looking at this whether it was the housing sales graph, construction graph, sales graph or what it is, the oil graph.  The dot farthest to the right is the price of oil today, hovering at the mid 60's and up about 22% over last year.  The dot to the left of that was the end of 2009 when prices started to climb back from the depths of 2008.  Continuing left was 2004 again recovering and heading to its ultimate highest peak near 160 a barell.  The farthest dot to the left was 1978 when of course things started to boom and for Fort St John became one of the busiest markets in the west.


So okay, thats great .. dots on graph, what could it mean if anything.  The dots aren't part of the graph, truth be known, the graph without the dots aren't that important either.  What matters for us in looking into our market, is the graph and the dots together.  Each of those dots that I mentioned above, and that are shown above represent the signs of changing times. 


Each of the dots on the upward climb, have a corresponding downward cross path.  the first one 1977, crosses paths with 1985.  The second from the left with a climb of 2004, crosses paths with 2008.  The third one 2009, again levels out with 2015.  Each of these represents a stable climb combined with the downward slide for an additional year, or years like this last case.


So where do these years leave us with right now?  As you can the see the dot to the farthest right giving us where we stand today with a healthy recovery of world wide oil prices, translated into the climb of both our market as well as our neighbours to the east.  This is great news, we not only have an idea of where we are sitting, but we can see from each of the graphs changes, where we are heading.  Using the same theory we have used to plot the past, lets plot the future together.  Collectively these average out to 2018 being a great build year with a limited amount of inventory lasting until 2023/2024 when this graph could at the time take another swing into a downward position for both the industry, our market and and the ecomonomy.


So again as I said in January of 2016 (now two years ago) when I made the following graph below, I am not a fortune teller or a medium ... just simply someone who loves seeing Fort St John flourish and being the guy you can rely on for accurate, factual information.


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